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Poland · I Liga

24 Jul 2026 16:00 UTC

POLONIA BYTOM vs WARTA POZNAN

Final 4:3

Polonia Bytom won Last goal: Warta Poznan

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Konrad Andrzejczak — Polonia Bytom
  2. ⚽ Kamil Wojtyra — Polonia Bytom
  3. ⚽ Kacper Lepczynski — Warta Poznan

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Marcel Stefaniak (penalty) — Warta Poznan
  2. ⚽ Konrad Andrzejczak — Polonia Bytom
  3. ⚽ Kamil Wojtyra — Polonia Bytom
  4. ⚽ Mateusz Stanek — Warta Poznan

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Polonia Bytom
Solid call
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 118 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 305 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 377 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 41 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)
118 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
219 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
287 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
209 predictions
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
298 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
348 predictions

Match overview