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USA · USL Championship

19 Jul 2026 02:30 UTC

PHOENIX RISING FC vs MONTEREY BAY FC

Final 3:2

Phoenix Rising FC won Last goal: Phoenix Rising FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Dominique Badji — Phoenix Rising FC
  2. ⚽ Anisse Saidi — Monterey Bay FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ John Scearce (own goal) — Monterey Bay FC
  2. ⚽ Kelvin Arase — Phoenix Rising FC
  3. ⚽ Ryuga Nakamura (own goal) — Phoenix Rising FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Phoenix Rising FC
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 24% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 150 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 411 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 489 completed matches.

1X2 24% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 74 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 24% (Weak)
148 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
270 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
356 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
267 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
373 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
440 predictions

Match overview