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USA · USL Championship

18 Jul 2026 23:00 UTC

LOUDOUN UNITED FC vs TAMPA BAY ROWDIES

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Loudoun United FC

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Pedro Dolabella (penalty) — Tampa Bay Rowdies

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Thor Ulfarsson — Loudoun United FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Loudoun United FC
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 41% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 110 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 405 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 489 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 76 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
341 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
219 predictions
Total 1.5 32% (Weak)
133 predictions
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
267 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
373 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
440 predictions

Match overview