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Argentina · Cup

17 Jul 2026 00:45 UTC

SARMIENTO vs BOCA JUNIORS

Final 0:2

Boca Juniors won Last goal: Boca Juniors

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alan Velasco — Boca Juniors
  2. ⚽ Leonel Flores — Boca Juniors

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Sarmiento
90-minute result: Boca Juniors
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
74%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
33%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 60% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 25 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 68 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 56 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 39% (Weak)
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 3 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 67% (Strong)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
Total 2.5 67% (Strong)
Total 3.5 100% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 33% (Strong)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
41 predictions
Both teams to score 35% (Weak)
20 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
29 predictions
Total 2.5 27% (Weak)
15 predictions
Total 3.5 81% (Strong)
52 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
55 predictions

Match overview