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International · FIFA World Cup · World Cup Grp. H

27 Jun 2026 00:00 UTC

URUGUAY vs SPAIN

Final 0:1

Top match Spain won Last goal: Spain

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Álex Baena · assist Marcos Llorente — Spain

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Agustín Canobbio (straight red) — Uruguay

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
43%
1X2
Spain
90-minute result: Spain
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Big miss
81%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
53%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
53%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
76%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 5 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 56 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 46 completed matches.

1X2 62% (Good)
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 24% (Strong)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 75% (Strong)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 25% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 62% (Good)
37 predictions
Both teams to score 76% (Strong)
21 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
16 predictions
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
42 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
44 predictions

Match overview