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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

31 May 2026 00:00 UTC

ECUADOR vs SAUDI ARABIA

Final 2:1 Almanac Moment

Ecuador won Last goal: Saudi Arabia

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Jackson Porozo — Ecuador

2nd half

⚽ Anthony Valencia — Ecuador
⚽ Sultan Mandash — Saudi Arabia

Model predictions were

46%

1X2

Ecuador

Result: Ecuador

45%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

78%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 51% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 53 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 222 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 56% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 78% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 42% (Weak)

Both teams to score 42% (Weak)

Total 1.5 75% (Strong)

Total 2.5 75% (Strong)

Total 3.5 67% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)

169 predictions

Both teams to score 39% (Weak)

106 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

172 predictions

Total 2.5 42% (Weak)

99 predictions

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

174 predictions

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

202 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Ecuador vs Saudi Arabia. The match ended 2-1 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. Pre-match projections pointed to Ecuador with a marginal edge at 45.8%.

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 77.9% of matches across a sample of 222 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 41.7% in a sample of 12 team involvements.

Across settled lines, market signals aligned strongly with the final outcome. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) was identified as a high-confidence indicator and was confirmed by the match. Over 2.5 goals (45.4%) aligned with the result, both teams to score (45.3%) was correctly identified.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.