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Brazil · Cup Nordeste · Copa do Nordeste Final Stage

28 May 2026 00:30 UTC

SPORT RECIFE vs FORTALEZA

Final 0:2

Fortaleza won Last goal: Fortaleza

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Juan Miritello — Fortaleza

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Vitinho — Fortaleza
  2. 🟥 Juan Miritello (straight red) — Fortaleza

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Fortaleza
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 20% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 55 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 48 completed matches.

1X2 27% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 13 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 31% (Weak)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 27% (Weak)
11 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
24 predictions
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
25 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
36 predictions
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
43 predictions

Match overview