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Brazil · Cup Nordeste · Copa do Nordeste Final Stage

21 May 2026 00:00 UTC

FORTALEZA vs SPORT RECIFE

Final 1:2

Sport Recife won Last goal: Fortaleza

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Perotti — Sport Recife

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Perotti — Sport Recife
  2. ⚽ Luiz Fernando — Fortaleza

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Fortaleza
90-minute result: Sport Recife
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 57% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 53 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 46 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 12 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 33% (Weak)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
35 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
23 predictions
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
12 predictions
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
24 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
35 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
41 predictions

Match overview