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Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

27 May 2026 19:00 UTC

CRYSTAL PALACE vs RAYO VALLECANO

Final 1:0

Crystal Palace won Last goal: Crystal Palace

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jean-Philippe Mateta — Crystal Palace

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
49%
1X2
Rayo Vallecano
90-minute result: Crystal Palace
As expected
45%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 32 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 152 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 149 completed matches.

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 25 past matches

1X2 20% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 48% (Average)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 48% (Average)
110 predictions
Both teams to score 37% (Weak)
84 predictions
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
112 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
73 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
109 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
130 predictions

Match overview