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Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

07 May 2026 19:00 UTC

CRYSTAL PALACE vs SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Final 2:1

Crystal Palace won Last goal: Crystal Palace

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Pedro Henrique (own goal) — Crystal Palace
  2. ⚽ Eguinaldo — Shakhtar Donetsk

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ismaïla Sarr — Crystal Palace

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
49%
1X2
Shakhtar Donetsk
90-minute result: Crystal Palace
No surprise
41%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
13%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 39% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 31 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 150 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 147 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 22 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 36% (Weak)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
109 predictions
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
64 predictions
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
36 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
74 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
107 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
128 predictions

Match overview