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Europe · Conference League · Conference League Final Stage

30 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

RAYO VALLECANO vs STRASBOURG

Final 1:0

Rayo Vallecano won Last goal: Rayo Vallecano

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alemão — Rayo Vallecano

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

No surprise
29%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Rayo Vallecano
As expected
45%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 38 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 148 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 145 completed matches.

1X2 24% (Weak)
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 20 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 45% (Average)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 24% (Weak)
37 predictions
Both teams to score 38% (Weak)
82 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
109 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
72 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
105 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
126 predictions

Match overview