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Brazil · Brasileirão · Serie A

25 May 2026 23:00 UTC

CORITIBA vs BAHIA

Final 3:2

Coritiba won Last goal: Bahia

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Tiago Cóser (own goal) — Bahia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Bruno Melo · assist Josué — Coritiba
  2. ⚽ Joaquín Lavega — Coritiba
  3. ⚽ Breno Lopes · assist Joaquín Lavega — Coritiba
  4. ⚽ Everaldo · assist Éverton Ribeiro — Bahia

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Bahia
90-minute result: Coritiba
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 79 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 409 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 394 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 51 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
292 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
193 predictions
Total 1.5 23% (Weak)
110 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
230 predictions
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
326 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
373 predictions

Match overview