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Brazil · Brasileirão · Serie A

23 May 2026 22:00 UTC

GREMIO vs SANTOS FC

Final 3:2

Gremio won Last goal: Gremio

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Gabriel Barbosa · assist Miguel Terceros — Santos FC
  2. ⚽ Carlos Vinícius · assist Francis Amuzu — Gremio

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Gabriel Barbosa · assist Gabriel Bontempo — Santos FC
  2. ⚽ Carlos Vinícius · assist Cristian Pavón — Gremio
  3. ⚽ Tetê · assist Cristian Pavón — Gremio
  4. 🟥 Gustavo Henrique (2nd yellow) — Santos FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Gremio
90-minute result: Gremio
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 48% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 136 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 400 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 385 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
285 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
188 predictions
Total 1.5 23% (Weak)
106 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
224 predictions
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
318 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
365 predictions

Match overview