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England · Championship · Championship Playoff

23 May 2026 14:30 UTC

HULL vs MIDDLESBROUGH

Final 1:0

Top match Hull won Last goal: Hull

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Oliver McBurnie — Hull

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Middlesbrough
90-minute result: Hull
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
12%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 98 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 554 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 546 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 92 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
387 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
305 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
406 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
250 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
432 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
497 predictions

Match overview