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England · Championship · Championship Playoff

12 May 2026 19:00 UTC

SOUTHAMPTON vs MIDDLESBROUGH

Final 2:1

Top match Southampton advanced Last goal: Southampton

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Riley McGree · assist Callum Brittain — Middlesbrough
  2. ⚽ Ross Stewart — Southampton

Extra time

  1. ⚽ Shea Charles · assist Taylor Harwood-Bellis — Southampton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
39%
1X2
Middlesbrough
90-minute result: Draw
Advanced: Southampton
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1 (90 min)

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 44 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 553 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 545 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 89 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
386 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
304 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
405 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
249 predictions
Total 3.5 19% (Weak)
113 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
496 predictions

Match overview