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Cyprus · First Division · Cyprus League Championship Playoff

22 May 2026 14:30 UTC

ARIS LIMASSOL vs AEK LARNACA

Final 3:4

AEK Larnaca won Last goal: AEK Larnaca

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Hrvoje Milicevic (penalty) — AEK Larnaca

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Riad Bajic — AEK Larnaca
  2. ⚽ Álex Cardero — AEK Larnaca
  3. ⚽ Aleksandr Kokorin — Aris Limassol
  4. ⚽ Jaden Montnor — Aris Limassol
  5. ⚽ Andronikos Kakoullis — Aris Limassol
  6. ⚽ Riad Bajic — AEK Larnaca

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Aris Limassol
90-minute result: AEK Larnaca
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:4

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 62% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 50 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 229 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 230 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 3% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Good)
161 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
112 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
173 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
102 predictions
Total 3.5 25% (Weak)
57 predictions
Total 4.5 6% (Weak)
17 predictions

Match overview