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Cyprus · First Division · Cyprus League Championship Playoff

16 May 2026 15:00 UTC

AEK LARNACA vs PAFOS FC

Final 2:2

Draw Last goal: AEK Larnaca

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Riad Bajic — AEK Larnaca
  2. ⚽ Pêpê Rodrigues — Pafos FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Wilmer Odefalk — Pafos FC
  2. ⚽ Hrvoje Milicevic (penalty) — AEK Larnaca

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Pafos FC
90-minute result: Draw
Nice call
47%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
28%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
1:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 67% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 3 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 225 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 226 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Good)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Good)
158 predictions
Both teams to score 41% (Weak)
109 predictions
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
169 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
100 predictions
Total 3.5 22% (Weak)
55 predictions
Total 4.5 0% (Weak)
15 predictions

Match overview