← Back to matches

Netherlands · Eredivisie

17 May 2026 12:30 UTC

SPARTA ROTTERDAM vs EXCELSIOR

Final 2:3

Top match Excelsior won Last goal: Sparta Rotterdam

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Giannino Vianello (own goal) — Excelsior

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Arthur Zagré — Excelsior
  2. ⚽ Ayoni Santos — Sparta Rotterdam
  3. ⚽ Noah Naujoks · assist Gyan de Regt — Excelsior
  4. ⚽ Milan Zonneveld · assist Tobias Lauritsen — Sparta Rotterdam

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
47%
1X2
Sparta Rotterdam
90-minute result: Excelsior
Solid call
65%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
89%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
66%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
66%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 71 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 293 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 296 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Average)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 48% (Average)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
220 predictions
Both teams to score 68% (Strong)
199 predictions
Total 1.5 87% (Strong)
260 predictions
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
188 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
105 predictions
Total 4.5 14% (Weak)
42 predictions

Match overview