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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 2

16 May 2026 19:00 UTC

ALCORCON vs MARBELLA

Final 6:2

Alcorcon won Last goal: Alcorcon

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Esteban Aparicio — Alcorcon
  2. ⚽ Juan Rodríguez (own goal) — Alcorcon
  3. 🟥 Álex Martínez (straight red) — Marbella
  4. ⚽ Tarsi Aguado — Alcorcon

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Borja Martínez — Alcorcon
  2. ⚽ Samu Rodríguez — Alcorcon
  3. ⚽ Alexiel — Marbella
  4. ⚽ Alexiel — Marbella
  5. ⚽ Omar Ouhdadi — Alcorcon

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
40%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Alcorcon
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 6:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 270 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 729 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 705 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)
215 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
339 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
214 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
425 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
584 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
656 predictions

Match overview