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Portugal · Liga Portugal

16 May 2026 17:00 UTC

AROUCA vs TONDELA

Final 3:1

Arouca won Last goal: Arouca

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Taichi Fukui — Arouca

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Rony Lopes · assist Makan Aiko — Tondela
  2. ⚽ Alfonso Trezza · assist Tiago Esgaio — Arouca
  3. ⚽ Lee Hyun-Ju · assist Dylan Nandín — Arouca

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
41%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Arouca
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Off target
66%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
66%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
66%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
87%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 88 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 300 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 288 completed matches.

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 63 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 2% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 31% (Weak)
80 predictions
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
126 predictions
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
57 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
147 predictions
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
229 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
263 predictions

Match overview