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England · Women's Super League · WSL

16 May 2026 12:00 UTC

CHELSEA FC WOMEN vs MANCHESTER UNITED WOMEN

Final 1:0

Chelsea FC Women won Last goal: Chelsea FC Women

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Sam Kerr · assist Lauren James — Chelsea FC Women

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

On point
51%
1X2
Chelsea FC Women
90-minute result: Chelsea FC Women
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
20%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 27 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 19% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 124 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 124 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 41 past matches

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
101 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
72 predictions
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
111 predictions
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
78 predictions
Total 3.5 28% (Weak)
43 predictions
Total 4.5 32% (Weak)
19 predictions

Match overview