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Switzerland · Super League · Super League Championship Group

10 May 2026 12:00 UTC

FC LUGANO vs FC ST. GALLEN

Final 1:2

FC St. Gallen won Last goal: FC St. Gallen

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Hadj Mahmoud — FC Lugano
  2. ⚽ Mihailo Stevanovic — FC St. Gallen
  3. ⚽ Lukas Görtler (penalty) — FC St. Gallen

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
37%
1X2
FC Lugano
90-minute result: FC St. Gallen
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Off target
65%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
9%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 57 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 210 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 210 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 55% (Good)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 65 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
151 predictions
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
62 predictions
Total 1.5 4% (Weak)
24 predictions
Total 2.5 30% (Weak)
81 predictions
Total 3.5 62% (Good)
140 predictions
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
178 predictions

Match overview