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France · Ligue 2

09 May 2026 18:00 UTC

RED STAR vs MONTPELLIER

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Montpellier

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Kévin Cabral — Red Star

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nicolas Pays — Montpellier

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Red Star
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 27% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 11 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 32% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 290 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 289 completed matches.

1X2 34% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 62 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 40% (Weak)
Total 1.5 47% (Average)
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 34% (Weak)
204 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
125 predictions
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
216 predictions
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
126 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
238 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
273 predictions

Match overview