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Azerbaijan · Premier League

09 May 2026 15:30 UTC

SUMQAYIT vs ARAZ PFK

Final 2:1

Sumqayit won Last goal: Sumqayit

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Alexandre Ramalingom — Sumqayit

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ba-Muaka Simakala — Araz PFK
  2. ⚽ Rahil Mammadov (own goal) — Sumqayit

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
45%
1X2
Araz PFK
90-minute result: Sumqayit
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 39 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 183 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 181 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 57 past matches

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 77% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
130 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
93 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
129 predictions
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
81 predictions
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
141 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
168 predictions

Match overview