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Ireland · Premier Division

08 May 2026 18:45 UTC

DROGHEDA UNITED vs DERRY CITY

Final 1:0

Drogheda United won Last goal: Drogheda United

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ryan Brennan (penalty) — Drogheda United

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
45%
1X2
Derry City
90-minute result: Drogheda United
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
37%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
1:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 15 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 33% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 160 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 128 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Weak)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 47 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 70% (Strong)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 40% (Weak)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Weak)
89 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
78 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
100 predictions
Total 2.5 34% (Weak)
58 predictions
Total 3.5 13% (Weak)
30 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
117 predictions

Match overview