← Back to matches

Finland · Veikkausliiga

04 May 2026 16:00 UTC

HJK vs FC LAHTI

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

HJK won Last goal: HJK

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Alfie Cicale — HJK

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Otso Koskinen (straight red) — FC Lahti
  2. 🟥 Neemias Barbosa (2nd yellow) — FC Lahti

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
Favorite
39%
1X2
HJK
90-minute result: HJK
Lucky hit
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
58%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
5%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 40 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 152 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 118 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 73% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 26 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 69% (Strong)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
81 predictions
Both teams to score 31% (Weak)
32 predictions
Total 1.5 17% (Weak)
12 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
40 predictions
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
77 predictions
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
99 predictions

Match overview