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England · Regional League · Southern Premier Division Central Playoff

04 May 2026 14:00 UTC

SPALDING UNITED vs REAL BEDFORD

Final 4:2

Spalding United advanced Last goal: Spalding United

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Yusifu Ceesay — Spalding United

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Ben Stevens — Real Bedford
  2. ⚽ Josh Setchell — Real Bedford
  3. ⚽ Jack Roberts (penalty) — Spalding United

Extra time

  1. ⚽ Bartosz Cybulski — Spalding United
  2. ⚽ Ben Fowkes — Spalding United

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
45%
1X2
Real Bedford
90-minute result: Draw
Advanced: Spalding United
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2 (90 min)

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 155 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,675 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1782 completed matches.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 82 past matches

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 74% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 52% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 42% (Weak)
1296 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
685 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
1445 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
790 predictions
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
1260 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
1569 predictions

Match overview