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Germany · 3. Liga

03 May 2026 17:30 UTC

INGOLSTADT vs ERZGEBIRGE AUE

Final 3:5

Erzgebirge Aue won Last goal: Erzgebirge Aue

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Fredrik Carlsen — Ingolstadt
  2. ⚽ Gustav Christensen — Ingolstadt
  3. ⚽ Julian Guttau — Erzgebirge Aue
  4. ⚽ Marcel Costly — Ingolstadt

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Julian Guttau — Erzgebirge Aue
  2. ⚽ Erik Weinhauer — Erzgebirge Aue
  3. ⚽ Ryan Malone — Erzgebirge Aue
  4. ⚽ Julian Guttau — Erzgebirge Aue

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Underdog
45%
1X2
Erzgebirge Aue
90-minute result: Erzgebirge Aue
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
56%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
35%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
5%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
6%
Score
0:6

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:5

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 363 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 350 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 71% (Strong)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 53% (Average)
Total 4.5 72% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 68 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
254 predictions
Both teams to score 34% (Weak)
128 predictions
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
287 predictions
Total 2.5 65% (Strong)
193 predictions
Total 3.5 40% (Weak)
109 predictions
Total 4.5 19% (Weak)
48 predictions

Match overview