← Back to matches

England · League One

02 May 2026 14:00 UTC

NORTHAMPTON vs PLYMOUTH

Final 2:3

Top match Plymouth won Last goal: Plymouth

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Elliott List · assist Michael Jacobs — Northampton
  2. ⚽ Michael Jacobs · assist Nesta Guinness-Walker — Northampton
  3. ⚽ Lorent Tolaj · assist Joe Edwards — Plymouth
  4. ⚽ Malachi Boateng · assist Lorent Tolaj — Plymouth

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Conor McCarthy (2nd yellow) — Northampton
  2. ⚽ Brendan Wiredu · assist Xavier Amaechi — Plymouth

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Northampton
90-minute result: Plymouth
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
7%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 82 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 523 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 528 completed matches.

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 61% (Good)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 87 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 45% (Average)
379 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
210 predictions
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
426 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
271 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
399 predictions
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
478 predictions

Match overview