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Italy · Serie B

01 May 2026 13:00 UTC

PALERMO vs CATANZARO

Final 3:2

Palermo won Last goal: Palermo

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Filippo Pittarello — Catanzaro
  2. ⚽ Dennis Johnsen — Palermo
  3. ⚽ Filippo Pittarello — Catanzaro

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Patrick Nuamah (own goal) — Palermo
  2. ⚽ Joel Pohjanpalo (penalty) — Palermo

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Palermo
As expected
47%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
11%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 130 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 358 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 356 completed matches.

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 71 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 32% (Weak)
111 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
151 predictions
Total 1.5 20% (Weak)
93 predictions
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
201 predictions
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
289 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
334 predictions

Match overview