← Back to matches

Italy · Serie B

01 May 2026 13:00 UTC

BARI vs VIRTUS ENTELLA

Final 2:0

Bari won Last goal: Bari

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Gabriele Moncini — Bari

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Matthias Verreth (straight red) — Bari
  2. 🟥 Bernat Guiu (2nd yellow) — Virtus Entella
  3. ⚽ Giulio Maggiore — Bari

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Bari
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
28%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 130 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 358 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 356 completed matches.

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Good)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 31% (Weak)
Total 1.5 46% (Average)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 32% (Weak)
111 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
205 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
263 predictions
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
155 predictions
Total 3.5 24% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
334 predictions

Match overview