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Azerbaijan · Premier League

30 Apr 2026 16:00 UTC

FK NEFTCHI vs QARABAG FK

Final 2:1

FK Neftchi won Last goal: FK Neftchi

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Emil Safarov — FK Neftchi
  2. ⚽ Elvin Badalov (own goal) — Qarabag FK
  3. ⚽ Bassala Sambou — FK Neftchi

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
45%
1X2
Qarabag FK
90-minute result: FK Neftchi
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 36 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 174 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 173 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 52% (Average)
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
Total 3.5 68% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 54 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 65% (Good)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
124 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
89 predictions
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
124 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
77 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
135 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
160 predictions

Match overview