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England · Regional League · Southern Premier Division Central

25 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

ALVECHURCH vs LEISTON

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Alvechurch

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adam Mills — Leiston

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Krystian Pearce — Alvechurch

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Leiston
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 151 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,624 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1732 completed matches.

1X2 42% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 80 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 56% (Good)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 42% (Weak)
1257 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
661 predictions
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
1409 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
765 predictions
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
1219 predictions
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
1526 predictions

Match overview