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Greece · Super League · Super League Championship Group

19 Apr 2026 15:00 UTC

AEK ATHENS vs PAOK THESSALONIKI FC

Final 3:0

AEK Athens won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Tomasz Kedziora — AEK Athens

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Aboubakary Koïta — AEK Athens
  2. ⚽ Orbelín Pineda — AEK Athens

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Underdog
45%
1X2
PAOK Thessaloniki FC
90-minute result: AEK Athens
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
No surprise
18%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 45 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 191 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 194 completed matches.

1X2 49% (Average)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 54% (Average)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
Total 3.5 64% (Good)
Total 4.5 74% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 49% (Average)
158 predictions
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
101 predictions
Total 1.5 20% (Weak)
49 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
98 predictions
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
150 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
174 predictions

Match overview