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England · National League · National League North

14 Apr 2026 18:45 UTC

ALFRETON vs BUXTON

Final 2:2

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Adam Lund — Alfreton
  2. ⚽ Johnny Johnston — Buxton
  3. ⚽ Kieran Burton — Alfreton

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Luke Brennan — Buxton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
45%
1X2
Buxton
90-minute result: Draw
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
78%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
67%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 43% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 89 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 968 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1026 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 59% (Good)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 84 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 58% (Good)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
771 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
413 predictions
Total 1.5 78% (Strong)
823 predictions
Total 2.5 46% (Average)
466 predictions
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
723 predictions
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
903 predictions

Match overview