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Azerbaijan · Premier League

12 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

TURAN TOVUZ vs SUMQAYIT

Final 2:1 Almanac Moment

Turan Tovuz won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Filip Ozobic — Turan Tovuz

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jo — Turan Tovuz
  2. ⚽ Rayan Senhadji — Sumqayit

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Turan Tovuz
90-minute result: Turan Tovuz
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
71%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
81%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
8%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 47% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 45 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 160 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 159 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 80% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 51 past matches

1X2 45% (Average)
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)
113 predictions
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
83 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
115 predictions
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
73 predictions
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
124 predictions
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
149 predictions

Match overview