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Scotland · Championship

11 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

AYR vs ARBROATH

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

Ayr won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jamie Murphy — Ayr

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
37%
1X2
Ayr
90-minute result: Ayr
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
8%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 43 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 34% (High)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 151 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 158 completed matches.

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 61 past matches

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 79% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 39% (Weak)
114 predictions
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
75 predictions
Total 1.5 27% (Weak)
37 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
87 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
124 predictions
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
146 predictions

Match overview