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Netherlands · Eerste Divisie

16 Mar 2026 19:00 UTC

JONG AZ ALKMAAR vs MVV MAASTRICHT

Final 1:1

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Matej Sín — Jong AZ Alkmaar

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Rion Ichihara — MVV Maastricht

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
MVV Maastricht
90-minute result: Draw
Solid call
61%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
No surprise
20%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 64 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 286 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 302 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
Total 3.5 51% (Average)
Total 4.5 64% (Good)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 35% (Weak)
237 predictions
Both teams to score 67% (Strong)
213 predictions
Total 1.5 84% (Strong)
260 predictions
Total 2.5 66% (Strong)
207 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
133 predictions
Total 4.5 29% (Weak)
76 predictions

Match overview