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Brazil · Paulista A1 · Mineiro Playoff

08 Mar 2026 21:00 UTC

CRUZEIRO vs ATLETICO MG

Final 1:0

Cruzeiro won

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Kaio Jorge — Cruzeiro

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Cruzeiro
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
11%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 111 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 364 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 354 completed matches.

1X2 24% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 28% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 24% (Weak)
107 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
194 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
263 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
216 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
302 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
335 predictions

Match overview