← Back to matches

Brazil · Paulista A1 · Carioca Taca Rio Playoff

07 Mar 2026 21:00 UTC

BOTAFOGO RJ vs BANGU

Final 3:1

Botafogo RJ won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Edenílson — Botafogo RJ

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Caio Valle — Botafogo RJ
  2. ⚽ Joaquín Correa — Botafogo RJ
  3. ⚽ Luizinho — Bangu

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
39%
1X2
Bangu
90-minute result: Botafogo RJ
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
28%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
76%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
18%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 53 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 358 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 348 completed matches.

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 17 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 65% (Good)
Both teams to score 65% (Good)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 88% (Strong)
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
Score 18% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 43% (Weak)
242 predictions
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
157 predictions
Total 1.5 25% (Weak)
89 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
212 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
296 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
329 predictions

Match overview