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Brazil · Paulista A1 · Baiano Playoff

07 Mar 2026 20:00 UTC

BAHIA vs VITORIA

Final 2:1

Bahia won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Renato Kayzer — Vitoria

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jean Lucas — Bahia
  2. ⚽ Jean Lucas — Bahia

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Bahia
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 110 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 358 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 348 completed matches.

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 18 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 39% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 72% (Strong)
Total 2.5 61% (Good)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 78% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 25% (Weak)
106 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
191 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
259 predictions
Total 2.5 58% (Good)
212 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
296 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
329 predictions

Match overview