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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

19 Feb 2026 17:45 UTC

FENERBAHCE vs NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Final 0:3

Nottingham Forest won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Murillo — Nottingham Forest
  2. ⚽ Igor Jesus — Nottingham Forest

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Morgan Gibbs-White — Nottingham Forest

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
43%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Nottingham Forest
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
45%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
45%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
3:3

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 18% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 39 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 144 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 144 completed matches.

1X2 17% (Weak)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 16 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
Total 3.5 63% (Good)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 17% (Weak)
35 predictions
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
81 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
113 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
73 predictions
Total 3.5 24% (Weak)
38 predictions
Total 4.5 6% (Weak)
18 predictions

Match overview