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Europe · Europa League · Europa League Final Stage

19 Feb 2026 17:45 UTC

PAOK THESSALONIKI FC vs CELTA VIGO

Final 1:2

Celta Vigo won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Iago Aspas — Celta Vigo
  2. ⚽ Williot Swedberg — Celta Vigo

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Alexander Jeremejeff — PAOK Thessaloniki FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Off target
Favorite
44%
1X2
PAOK Thessaloniki FC
90-minute result: Celta Vigo
No surprise
37%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
88%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
On point
78%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
91%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 53% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 15 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 144 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 144 completed matches.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 60% (Good)
Total 4.5 76% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 15 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 47% (Average)
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
Total 1.5 80% (Strong)
Total 2.5 27% (Weak)
Total 3.5 47% (Average)
Total 4.5 67% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 50% (Average)
109 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
63 predictions
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
113 predictions
Total 2.5 45% (Average)
73 predictions
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
106 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
126 predictions

Match overview