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England · FA Cup

14 Feb 2026 15:00 UTC

BURNLEY vs MANSFIELD

Final 1:2

Mansfield won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Josh Laurent — Burnley

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Rhys Oates — Mansfield
  2. ⚽ Louis Reed — Mansfield

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
90-minute result: Mansfield
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
48%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
58%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 23% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 22 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 93 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 92 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 61% (Good)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 4 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 0% (Weak)
Both teams to score 75% (Strong)
Total 1.5 75% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 25% (Weak)
Total 4.5 25% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 24% (Weak)
21 predictions
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
30 predictions
Total 1.5 15% (Weak)
13 predictions
Total 2.5 35% (Weak)
34 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
59 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
77 predictions

Match overview