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England · FA Cup

14 Feb 2026 15:00 UTC

SOUTHAMPTON vs LEICESTER

Final 2:1

Draw

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Cyle Larin — Southampton
  2. ⚽ Oliver Skipp — Leicester

Extra time

  1. ⚽ James Bree — Southampton

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

As expected
Favorite
37%
1X2
Southampton
90-minute result: Draw
Solid call
61%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
58%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1 (90 min)

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 48% (Average)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 22% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 93 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 92 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)
Both teams to score 62% (Good)
Total 1.5 76% (Strong)
Total 2.5 62% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 61% (Good)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 2 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)
Both teams to score 100% (Strong)
Total 1.5 50% (Average)
Total 2.5 100% (Strong)
Total 3.5 100% (Strong)
Total 4.5 100% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 52% (Average)
71 predictions
Both teams to score 71% (Strong)
62 predictions
Total 1.5 86% (Strong)
79 predictions
Total 2.5 78% (Strong)
58 predictions
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
59 predictions
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
77 predictions

Match overview