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England · League Cup · EFL Cup

04 Feb 2026 20:00 UTC

MANCHESTER CITY vs NEWCASTLE

Final 3:1

Manchester City won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Omar Marmoush — Manchester City
  2. ⚽ Omar Marmoush — Manchester City
  3. ⚽ Tijjani Reijnders — Manchester City

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Anthony Elanga — Newcastle

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Manchester City
90-minute result: Manchester City
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
74%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Off target
65%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
77%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
14%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 67% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 3 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 90 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 91 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 68% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 69% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 7 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 71% (Strong)
Both teams to score 71% (Strong)
Total 1.5 100% (Strong)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
79 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
37 predictions
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
74 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
56 predictions
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
58 predictions
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
71 predictions

Match overview