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England · League Cup · EFL Cup

14 Jan 2026 20:00 UTC

CHELSEA vs ARSENAL

Final 2:3

Top match Arsenal won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Ben White — Arsenal

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Viktor Gyökeres — Arsenal
  2. ⚽ Alejandro Garnacho — Chelsea
  3. ⚽ Martín Zubimendi — Arsenal
  4. ⚽ Alejandro Garnacho — Chelsea

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Solid call
Favorite
45%
1X2
Arsenal
90-minute result: Arsenal
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
48%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
31%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
6%
Score
0:4

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 100% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-4; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 1 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 16% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 88 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 89 completed matches.

1X2 44% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
Total 2.5 47% (Average)
Total 3.5 57% (Good)
Total 4.5 71% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 6 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 83% (Strong)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
Total 4.5 33% (Weak)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 44% (Weak)
78 predictions
Both teams to score 47% (Average)
36 predictions
Total 1.5 82% (Strong)
72 predictions
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
54 predictions
Total 3.5 29% (Weak)
31 predictions
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
70 predictions

Match overview