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Australia · A-League · A-League Men

24 Jan 2026 08:35 UTC

MACARTHUR FC vs MELBOURNE CITY FC

Final 6:2

Macarthur FC won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Mitch Duke — Macarthur FC
  2. ⚽ Luke Brattan — Macarthur FC
  3. ⚽ Medin Memeti — Melbourne City FC
  4. ⚽ Anthony Cáceres — Macarthur FC

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Luke Vickery — Macarthur FC
  2. ⚽ Dean Bosnjak — Macarthur FC
  3. ⚽ Marcus Younis — Melbourne City FC
  4. ⚽ Harrison Sawyer — Macarthur FC

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
37%
1X2
Macarthur FC
90-minute result: Macarthur FC
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
10%
Score
3:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 6:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 36% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 82 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 74 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 21 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 76% (Strong)
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
Total 2.5 71% (Strong)
Total 3.5 67% (Strong)
Total 4.5 86% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
57 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
41 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
56 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
39 predictions
Total 3.5 43% (Weak)
14 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
68 predictions

Match overview