← Back to matches

Australia · A-League · A-League Men

23 Jan 2026 08:35 UTC

NEWCASTLE JETS vs WELLINGTON PHOENIX

Final 4:1

Newcastle Jets won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Lachlan Bayliss — Newcastle Jets

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Clayton Taylor — Newcastle Jets
  2. ⚽ Eli Adams — Newcastle Jets
  3. ⚽ Sander Erik Kartum — Wellington Phoenix
  4. ⚽ Xavier Bertoncello — Newcastle Jets

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Nice call
37%
1X2
Newcastle Jets
90-minute result: Newcastle Jets
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
86%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 4:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 31% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 13 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 17% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 81 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 74 completed matches.

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
Total 3.5 76% (Strong)
Total 4.5 84% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 20 past matches

1X2 20% (Weak)
Both teams to score 70% (Strong)
Total 1.5 90% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 70% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
57 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
33 predictions
Total 1.5 73% (Strong)
56 predictions
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
35 predictions
Total 3.5 83% (Strong)
60 predictions
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
68 predictions

Match overview