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England · Papa John's Trophy · EFL Trophy Final Stage

13 Jan 2026 19:00 UTC

DONCASTER vs FLEETWOOD

Final 3:1

Doncaster won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Billy Sharp — Doncaster

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Billy Sharp — Doncaster
  2. ⚽ Hakeeb Adelakun — Doncaster
  3. ⚽ Will Davies — Fleetwood

Model predictions were

Predictions are settled on the 90-minute result, including stoppage time but excluding extra time and penalties.

Big miss
Underdog
51%
1X2
Fleetwood
90-minute result: Doncaster
No surprise
44%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
On point
80%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Solid call
70%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over
Lucky hit
43%
Total 3.5
Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
23%
Total 4.5
Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:5

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Draw likelihood 12% (Low)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 111 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 113 completed matches.

1X2 55% (Average)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 81% (Strong)
Total 2.5 60% (Good)
Total 3.5 49% (Average)
Total 4.5 60% (Good)
Score 4% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 8 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 25% (Weak)
Total 1.5 88% (Strong)
Total 2.5 63% (Good)
Total 3.5 25% (Weak)
Total 4.5 75% (Strong)
Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 55% (Average)
91 predictions
Both teams to score 28% (Weak)
29 predictions
Total 1.5 85% (Strong)
106 predictions
Total 2.5 72% (Strong)
83 predictions
Total 3.5 50% (Average)
52 predictions
Total 4.5 35% (Weak)
34 predictions

Match overview